The UK's economic future hangs in the balance, and at the heart of this debate is the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) – a body tasked with keeping the government's finances in check. But here's where it gets controversial: while some see the OBR as a vital watchdog, others argue it wields too much power, effectively dictating economic policy. This tension is now front and center as Reform UK, currently leading in national polls, unveils its plans for the OBR.
In a forthcoming speech in the City of London, Reform UK’s Robert Jenrick is expected to acknowledge the OBR’s imperfections. “The OBR isn’t flawless,” he will admit, “but its creation was driven by a noble goal: to enforce fiscal discipline – something we fully support.” This statement comes as Reform UK faces increasing scrutiny over its economic policies, particularly after Nigel Farage backtracked in November on the party’s earlier pledge to deliver £90 billion in annual tax cuts. That U-turn was aimed at bolstering the party’s economic credibility, and Jenrick’s speech is the latest effort to reassure voters that Reform UK can be trusted with public finances.
The OBR plays a critical role in assessing the UK’s economic health and evaluating government spending plans. As an independent body, its reports often coincide with major financial events, like the autumn budget. However, its influence has sparked debate. Critics, including Reform UK deputy leader Richard Tice, argue the OBR has become too powerful. “It’s essentially telling the government how to run its policies,” Tice told Politico last month, highlighting concerns that the body’s forecasts overly constrain economic decision-making.
And this is the part most people miss: Jenrick’s speech marks a notable shift in tone. Instead of abolishing the OBR, as some within Reform UK have suggested, Jenrick will propose reforming it. “We’ll break up the cozy consensus and introduce diverse perspectives,” he is set to say. “We’ll even run competitions to recruit superforecasters, offering competitive salaries to those who can most accurately model the impact of Treasury decisions.” This approach aims to balance accountability with innovation, ensuring the OBR remains effective without overstepping its bounds.
Jenrick will also address the Bank of England, defending its independence while criticizing its handling of inflation. “The Bank took its eye off the ball on inflation,” he will argue, pledging to refocus its priorities away from issues like carbon emissions. “Our goal will always be to keep inflation low, because that’s how we protect people’s finances,” he will emphasize.
The speech comes just a day after Reform UK announced Jenrick as its chancellor-in-waiting, should the party win the next general election. This appointment follows Jenrick’s recent departure from the Conservative Party, where he was sacked as Kemi Badenoch’s shadow justice secretary for allegedly plotting to defect. Hours later, he joined Reform UK, a move that has drawn sharp criticism from opponents.
Labour’s Dan Tomlinson MP accused Jenrick of “long-lambasting the OBR” and supporting former Prime Minister Liz Truss’s “disastrous mini-Budget,” which triggered economic turmoil. “Jenrick and the Tories wrecked family finances, and he’d do the same through Reform,” Tomlinson warned. Meanwhile, Conservative shadow chancellor Sir Mel Stride dismissed Reform UK’s OBR plans as “in chaos,” pointing out Farage’s earlier suggestion to abolish the body. “Reform UK says one thing, then backtracks when questioned. They have no plan and no principles,” Sir Mel added.
Here’s the burning question: Can Reform UK strike the right balance between fiscal discipline and economic flexibility? Or does its shifting stance on the OBR reveal deeper inconsistencies? Let us know your thoughts in the comments – this debate is far from over.
