Is One Nation Australia's Rising Electoral Force? The Growing Concern for the Coalition
In the lead-up to Australia's federal election last year, a narrative emerged that offered a glimmer of hope for the Coalition's struggling campaign. With One Nation's popularity on the rise, the potential for preferences from Pauline Hanson's supporters to help the Liberals gain ground in working-class seats in the outer suburbs and regions was a topic of discussion.
"Aunty Pauline is now acceptable," a Liberal insider was quoted as saying, implying that Hanson had become more palatable to voters and her right-wing party an electoral asset for the Coalition. However, this narrative never materialized as the opposition leader Peter Dutton's suburban strategy failed on polling day.
Nine months later, the One Nation narrative continues to surround the Coalition, but now it suggests a genuine electoral opponent. After years on the extreme fringes of Australian politics, pollsters and political insiders indicate that financial stress and disillusionment with the major parties, particularly the Coalition, are pushing Hanson's hardline right-wing populism into the mainstream.
The latest Guardian Essential poll reveals One Nation's primary vote at 22%, triple what it achieved in the 2025 election and just three points below the Coalition. This surge in support is seen as an expression of dissatisfaction with the major parties, especially the Liberals and Nationals, rather than a genuine voting intention, given the next federal election isn't due until 2028.
However, it cannot be dismissed. The rise in support for One Nation is significant and reflects shifts occurring in the UK, Europe, and the US, where populist movements are challenging the mainstream parties' handling of global capitalism. Kos Samaras, a former Labor strategist-turned-pollster, notes that One Nation is becoming a political destination for people voting on cultural issues, reflecting their financial stress and declining living standards.
One Nation's grievance politics revolves around two key positions: ending mass migration and abandoning net zero and the Paris climate agreement. While the Coalition has moved on these issues, it has failed to stop the slide in support. Barnaby Joyce, the former Nationals leader who defected to One Nation, attributes the appeal of One Nation's positions to disenfranchised voters.
One Nation's base remains concentrated outside capital cities and among non-university educated people on middle-to-low incomes. However, stereotypes of One Nation as a political brand for older men are challenged by polling data. One Nation polls higher with female voters and 35-54-year-olds, indicating a broader appeal.
The polling surge has not been accompanied by new policies or a softening of Hanson's stances, as evidenced by her burqa stunt in the Senate. One Nation's positions remain binary, focusing on ending mass migration and abandoning net zero and the Paris climate agreement. The Coalition's recent moves on these issues have not been enough to stop the slide.
One Nation's disunity and disorganization in Canberra have historically hindered its ability to consolidate support outside the far-right fringes. The latest surge could lead to similar chaos or reshape the political landscape. With One Nation holding a single seat in the chamber where government is formed, its goal of becoming a viable alternative government is ambitious.
Despite challenges, One Nation's support is significant, and its impact on the political landscape cannot be ignored. The threat it poses to the Coalition and the Nationals is evident, as seen in the Nationals' opposition to Labor's hate speech laws, which triggered a political crisis. The Nationals' leadership is now in flux, with Colin Boyce challenging David Littleproud, and the possibility of others defecting to One Nation, as hinted by Boyce, adds to the uncertainty.
