Is now the time to invest in Bitcoin? It's a question on many investors' minds, especially given the cryptocurrency's recent price drop. While some are still bullish on Bitcoin's potential, I believe the case for owning it is getting harder to argue with each passing year. Here's why buying Bitcoin at the current price of $73,000 probably won't lead to riches.
Blistering Historical Returns
Bitcoin has been one of the best-performing assets of the past decade, with a return of more than 13,600%. It has crushed gold, real estate, and stock market indexes like the S&P 500. However, I'm skeptical of the lofty targets set by some investors. Michael Saylor, for instance, believes Bitcoin will soar to $21 million per coin by 2045, which would give it a market capitalization of $441 trillion. While this is an impressive figure, it's important to remember that Saylor's company, MicroStrategy, owns $62 billion worth of Bitcoin, so he has a vested interest in issuing highly bullish public forecasts.
Cathie Wood's ARK Investment Management predicts Bitcoin's market capitalization could reach $16 trillion by 2030, which would translate to $762,000 per coin based on a fully diluted supply of 21 million coins. This is a more reasonable target, and the firm cites six potential upside catalysts that could make it a reality. One of the most noteworthy catalysts is Bitcoin's recognition by investors as digital gold, but I believe this thesis has fallen apart in recent years.
Bitcoin's Struggles in 2025
Bitcoin lost its way in 2025, and it's struggling to recover. It declined by 5% in 2025, while real gold rocketed higher by 64%. This is a stark contrast, and it suggests that when investors need a safe-haven asset, they are choosing gold over Bitcoin. Moreover, Bitcoin has failed to gain traction as a basic payment mechanism, with only 6,880 businesses signing up to accept it as payment for goods and services since its launch in 2009.
The Case for Owning Bitcoin is Getting Harder
The case for owning Bitcoin is getting harder to argue with each passing year. While buying the dip worked in the past, I'm not convinced it's the right move this time. The factors that drove Bitcoin higher in the past no longer hold water, and it's struggling to recover from its recent decline. In my opinion, the cryptocurrency's lack of traction as a payment mechanism and its failure to gain acceptance as a safe-haven asset make it a risky investment at the current price.
Conclusion
While some investors are still bullish on Bitcoin's potential, I believe the case for owning it is getting harder to argue with each passing year. The cryptocurrency's struggles in 2025 and its failure to gain traction as a payment mechanism and safe-haven asset make it a risky investment at the current price. Personally, I think investors should be cautious about buying Bitcoin at the current price, and instead consider other assets that offer more potential for growth and stability.
